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Wednesday 28th and Thursday 29th October 2009, Brussels

 

ECFR, Asia Centre, CICIR

Asia Centre at Sciences Po and the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), in partnership with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), co-organize the 4th session of the Sino-European Strategic Dialogue, an informal and high level event. The dialogue is also sponsored by the Direction de la Prospective of the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Directorate General for External Relations of the European Commission.

 

The goal of the dialogue is to enhance mutual understanding of strategic issues by bringing together Chinese and European experts of international relations and security issues, as well as public officials in their personal capacity. In this dialogue, we are focusing specifically on fostering interaction between Chinese colleagues and Europe’s three largest member states – France, Germany and the United Kingdom – as well as with the EU Brussels institutions...

[Read Memo]

 

Information: contact@centreasia.org

The dialogue will include the following themes:

 

-          New Directions in Chinese Foreign Policy – Responsibilities, Regional Crises, Peace-Keeping

-          the EU-U.S.-China Triangle

-          the EU-Russia-China Triangle

-          Proliferation from a Regional Perspective: Northeast Asia and Iran

-          Managing Crisis in South Asia

CA 25 ENCHINA SHAPES ITS POST-CRISIS AGENDA 1. A Chinese dilemma too: maintaining employment beyond the stimulus 2.  The public sector is back in favour 3.  A different currency debate: a regional role for the Renminbi? 4.  Global governance and the G20: more power for China.

 

[For more information]

[download China Anlysis n°25]

 

Information - registration: chinaanalysis@centreasia.org

Japan Analysis n°17ANALYSIS OF CURRENT AFFAIRS

1. The Minshutô defeats the LDP

2. The Minshutô’s first reforms

3. An anti-American posture?

4. The post-electoral balance in the Minshutô

5. The LDP prepares for a come-back

6. Towards a renewal of the political scene?

POINTS OF VIEW ON CURRENT AFFAIRS

Asai Motofumi, «Leaving behind an international political outlook based on power - a close look at the Democratic Party’s diplomacy and security policy», Sekai, November 2009, p. 147-156 (translated from the Japanese by Pierre Fauquet, Asia Centre).

Îo Jun and Nonaka Naoto, «In what ways will the merging of the government with the majority party lead to policy changes?», Chûô kôron, November 2009, p. 74-83 (translated from the Japanese by Guibourg Delamotte, Asia Centre).

Tsuji Takuya, «Ranking prefectures in terms of birth rates and population growth», Chûô kôron, October 2009, pp. 72-81 (translated from the Japanese by Pierre Fauquet, Asia Centre).

Ishiba Shigeru, «The LDP will not be able to recover by appealing to hidebound nationalism», Chûô kôron, November 2009, p. 92-99 (translated from the Japanese by Guibourg Delamotte, Asia Centre).

 

For more information or to sign up: japananalysis@centreasia.org
The EU and China: Talking past each other by François Godement

December 8th 2009

 

Did anybody notice the recent EU-China summit that took place at the end of November in Nanjing? No? The media seemed more concerned with the nominations at the Commission and EU Council. Yet the summit was seen as important enough to warrant Jose Manuel Barroso, along with Sweden's prime minister Fredrik Reinfeldt and foreign minister Carl Bildt, making the trip to see Premier Wen Jiabao.

   

Continue reading on www.ecfr.eu

  

Forum on China EU Strategic PartnershipNovember 19-20, 2009, Beijing

 

The strategic significance of the China-EU partnership

by François Godement, Professor and Director, Asia Centre at Sciences Po, Senior Fellow of the European Council on Foreign Relations

 

Strategic partnerships are not self-evident enterprises in international relations, especially between states with different political systems and societies. To make a few comparisons, China and Russia have had indeed since 1996 a strategic partnership “of coordination”. Certainly, the strategic nature of the relationship cannot be put in doubt: important arms transfers, joint stands on many important strategic issues are proof enough. Yet the partnership itself is limited. Its economic content is dwarfed by far by China-EU or China-US, or China-Japan relations, and even the energy content of the relationship proves certainly a complement, but not a foundation, for China’s energy security. With the US, precisely, China has had a partnership after 1996, but it has never been deemed “strategic” until President Obama, on the eve of this week’s trip to China, declared that this was his intent. With Europe as well as with the United States, China has a strategic dialogue. It is worth noting that China and Asean also have a “strategic partnership for peace and cooperation”. Yet Asean, by virtue of its own charter, is not designed to be a strategic actor in the full sense of the word. On the contrary, its spirit and intent have been to promote multilateralism in the regional context, neutrality and literally all non-strategic means of international relations, starting from confidence-building and interpersonal relations.  From these comparisons, we should perhaps reflect on the fact that a “strategic partnership” may have different meanings in different contexts. To add to the confusion, one might note that Europe and the US have never concluded any formal “strategic partnership”. Yet there is little doubt their relations are both strategic and substantial on every front.  Between China and Europe, a declaration of intent on a strategic partnership was affirmed by both sides in October 2003. Subsequently, this has remained an objective to which both sides refer from time to time, but it is not fully established in name, nor perhaps in reality.  

Should we care? Yes and no, or rather, no but yes.

 

Read the paper

 

Journal of Current Chinese Affairs - China Aktuell coverOctober 2009: A special edition of the Journal of Current Chinese Affairs - China Aktuell compiling the contributions at the international seminar on contemporary China organized by Asia Centre during June 2008 within the framework of its brainstorming group on contemporary Chinese affairs, “Politics in the Hu Jintao Era : CCP’s Adaptation to Domestic and Foreign Challenges.”

 

Articles recognized for their academic value by their authors’ peers, and designed to give an account of current academic expertise concerning the most important issues of contemporary China: Cheng Li « The Chinese Communist Party : Recruiting and Controlling the New Elites », Heike Holbig, « Remaking the CCP’s ideology: determinants, progress and limits under Hu Jintao», Jean-Pierre Cabestan « China’s Foreign and Security Policy Decision-Making Processes Under Hu Jintao », Chao Chien-min, Chang Wu-yue « Managing stability in the Taiwan Strait: non-military aspects of policy towards Taiwan» ; Karl Halding, GUOYI Han, Marie OLSSON, « China's Climate and Energy Securities Dilemma: Shaping a New Path of Economic Growth».

 

Journal of Current Chinese Affairs - China aktuell  

China’s Politics under Hu Jintao

Mathieu Duchâtel, François Godement

 

Abstract

This special issue focuses on Hu Jintao’s first mandate in power, between the Sixteenth and the Seventeenth Party Congress (2002-2007). It considers two intertwined issues: power viewed through the lens of party politics, and actual policy changes that may have emanated from a mandate initially loaded with expectations. Besides the domestic dimensions of elite politics and ideological change, two central aspects of Chinese politics, the key question tackled in this issue is the ability of a new general secretary to transform past policies, especially in the realms of foreign affairs and national security since they are by tradition – and constitutionally – the responsibility of China’s paramount leader.

Continue reading 

    

The Chinese Communist Party: Recruiting and Controlling the New Elites

Cheng Li

 

Abstract

This article explores two interrelated aspects of the new dynamics within the CCP leadership – the new elite groups and the new ground rules in Chinese politics. The first shows profound changes in the recruitment of the elite and the second aims to reveal the changing mechanisms of political control and the checks and balances of the Chinese political system. The article argues that the future of the CCP largely depends on two seemingly contradictory needs: how broad-based will the Party’s recruitment of its new elites be on the one hand and how effective will the top leadership be in controlling this increasingly diverse political institution on the other. The emerging fifth generation of leaders is likely to find the challenge of producing elite harmony and unity within the Party more difficult than their predecessors. Yet, the diverse demographic and political backgrounds of China’s new leaders can also be considered a positive development that may contribute to the Chinese-style inner-Party democracy.

Continue reading 

   

Remaking the CCP’s Ideology: Determinants, Progress, and Limits under Hu Jintao

Heike Holbig

 

Abstract

Two decades after the predicted “end of ideology”, we are observing a re-emphasis on party ideology under Hu Jintao. The paper looks into the reasons for and the factors shaping the re-formulation of the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) ideology since 2002 and assesses the progress and limits of this process. Based on the analysis of recent elite debates, it is argued that the remaking of ideology has been the consequence of perceived challenges to the legitimacy of CCP rule. Contrary to many Western commentators, who see China’s successful economic performance as the most important if not the only source of regime legitimacy, Chinese party theorists and scholars have come to regard Deng Xiaoping’s formula of performance-based legitimacy as increasingly precarious. In order to tackle the perceived “performance dilemma” of party rule, the adaptation and innovation of party ideology is regarded as a crucial measure to relegitimize CCP rule.    

Continue reading

 

China’s Foreign- and Security-policy Decision-making Processes under Hu Jintao

Jean-Pierre Cabestan

 

Abstract

Since 1979, foreign- and security-policy-making and implementation processes have gradually and substantially changed. New modes of operation that have consolidated under Hu Jintao, actually took shape under Jiang Zemin in the 1990s, and some, under Deng Xiaoping. While the military’s role has diminished, that of diplomats, experts, and bureaucracies dealing with trade, international economic relations, energy, propaganda and education has increased. Decision making in this area has remained highly centralized and concentrated in the supreme leading bodies of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). However, China’s globalization and decentralization, as well as the increasing complexity of its international interests, have intensified the need to better coordinate the activities of the various CCP and state organs involved in foreign and security policy; hence, the growing importance of the CCP leading small groups (foreign affairs, national security, Taiwan, etc.). But the rigidity of the current institutional pattern has so far foiled repeated attempts to establish a National Security Council. 

Continue reading

 

Managing Stability in the Taiwan Strait: Non-Military Policy towards Taiwan under Hu Jintao

Wu-ueh Chang, Chien-min Chao

 

Abstract

China’s Taiwan policy has been one of coupling intimidation (the “stick” approach) with coercion (the “carrot” approach), a policy mix which, in the near term, is not likely to change, as is evidenced by the passage of the “Anti-Secession Law” in March, 2005. However, under Hu Jintao, the focus has been on pragmatism. The warm atmosphere that presently reigns in the Taiwan Strait area is unprecedented. Further talks are expected before the two cross-Strait leaders are slated to step down, simultaneously, in 2012. An era of reconciliation and negotiations has dawned. For the first time there is consensus regarding norms of interaction between the two sides. Cross-Strait relations have stabilized after years of tumult. More open, stable and predictable cross-Strait relations are in the interests of both sides. Difficulties surely lie ahead, but they will be dealt with in a different manner than what has been witnessed in the past. 

Continue reading

 

The China JournalBook review from Kun-Chin Lin, National University of Singapore.

 

Shaping China's Energy Security: The Inside Perspective, edited by Michael Meidan. Paris: Asia Centre/Centre etudes Asie, 2007. 239 pp. €22.00 (France), €25.00 (Europe), €26.00 (elsewhere) (paperback).

 

This edited book contributes significantly to our understanding of energy policies and politics in China. Divided into four parts, it covers a broad range of topics and analytical approaches, including institutional analysis of the regulatory framework, sectoral analysis of the coal, oil and power industries, policy analysis of energy tax and environmental regulation, and normative discussions of China's potential contributions to international diplomacy on global warming. Prominent scholars from the UK, France, the US, China and Japan provide a lIseful representation of the range of research on China's energy sector...

The overarching theme is the Chinese state's capacity to address the growing sense of energy insecurity-defined as "strategic threats" posed by supply disruptions, efficiency and sustainability in energy usage, price volatility, and environmental degradation (p. 16). The authors encourage us to think beyond the conventional emphasis on supply-side policies and procurement, to investigate the political choices emerging from the key regulators' strategic interactions with stakeholders and to incorporate the macroeconomic, social and foreign policy, and fiscal and legal dimensions of energy security. They highlight the unresolved issues of corporate governance and economic efficiency in the aftermath of the restructuring of the national oil and petrochemical corporations (NOCs) and privatization of coal sectors in the late 1990s.

 

Chapter 1 by Michal Meidan, Philips Andrews-Speed and Ma Xin proposes an analytical framework for energy policy-making, listing and briefly characterizing the central state regulators and a variety of stakeholders. Not surprisingly, the main relationship affecting policy output is that between ministries and state-owned firms such as the national oil corporations. The chapter could benefit from greater clarity about the interests of the regulators, in particular by differentiating clearly between economic and technical concerns on the one hand and fiscal imperatives on the other. This neglect of the fiscal aspects of energy policies is a problem throughout the book.

 

Meidan, Andrews-Speed and Ma are absolutely right that the cherished "fragmented authoritarianism" model of bureaucratic politics does not account adequately for the emerging regulatory landscape on energy policies. Simply stated, there are more autonomous interests and energy-related issues to consider today than there were in the late 1980s. The issue linkages implied in this more inclusive analytical framework are laid out for three policy bundles encapsulating different statist priorities-energy supply, the relationship between energy supply and efficiency, and the relationship between energy efficiency and environmental protection (pp. 58-61). I would have liked to see a critical assessment of the key predictions of the fragmented authoritarian model; however, this chapter serves as a reference point for future theory-building.

 

Erica Downs' work on the relative autonomy of NOCs is highly respected; in Chapter 2 she turns to the supply side of policies and regulation. Her account adopts the language of the fragmented authoritarian model, but her findings push the model's boundaries. I would have liked to see more precision about the current functions of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), and an assessment of the relative rule-making activism and enforcement presence of the agencies across issue areas would be informative. Downs underscores the continuing usefulness for elite promotion of work experience in the oil sector - does this pattern suggest factionalism with an "oil clique" as its base? Do regulators consider job prospects in the NOCs when they design or enforce policies? These questions relate to an important debate on the emergence of the regulatory state in China.

 

In Chapter 3 Brian Ricketts of the International Energy Agency analyzes the international and domestic market characteristics of coal production and trade. While coal pricing and coalmine ownership have been significantly more privatized than in the oil and petrochemical sectors, Ricketts rightly points out that coal trade remains under the oligopolistic control of state-owned trading companies. In addition, serious shortcomings in health, safety and environmental regulation and in transport infrastructure have discouraged investors. A greater focus is needed on the responses of local governments to Beijing's attempts to consolidate the market, favor large-scale mines and increase regulatory enforcement; the concluding chapter mentions the need to consider the local state (p. 226).

 

Chapter 4 by Shi Dan, a leading expert on China's energy, hints at the redistributive conflicts behind domestic-international price gaps and Beijing's adherence to administrative controls over price adjustments. This chapter captures succinctly the essence of the structural problems facing the oil industry since the last market consolidation and asset restructuring of NOCs in 1998. As China moves toward price convergence with global prices while keeping the NDRC firmly in control of price-setting, it exposes itself to contentious redistributive politics in times of price fluctuations. The oligopolistic market structure has also impeded the emergence of private competitors and the adoption of technology and production methods to improve efficiency in subsidiaries. Her suggestion that the government allocate funds for strategic petroleum reserves is particularly apt in the current context of depressed oil prices, but her additional suggestions for market-determination of oil prices and encouragement of private capital in exploration would be difficult to implement. If, as Downs has argued, the NOCs have leveraged their autonomous political influence, then such changes would be possible only if they can provide private gains for the NOCs.

 

Chapter 5 by Wei Bin on the power industry reflects the official perspective on the key reform measures in the past decade and the future reform agenda. Chapter 6 by Yang Lan, Mao Xianqiang, Liu Zhaoyang and Xing Youkai applies a general equilibrium model (using the base year 2000) to simulate the effects of an energy tax on macroeconomic indices, energy consumption, saving and demand, and the environment. The model's assumptions are certainly open to dispute. The prediction, not surprisingly, is that the higher the level of the energy tax, the greater the negative impacts on the national economy, but also the more likely that industries and households will adjust their energy usage and technology toward cleaner fuel. The authors argue that the energy tax should be supplemented by short-term side-payments to disadvantaged users and additional incentives to promote green technology. This has not been done with the recent implementation of the national fuel tax.

 

Chapters 7 to 9 adopt a legalistic perspective on China's energy policy in a broader geopolitical context. In Chapter 7, Wang Mingyuan identifies an interesting paradox in the legal foundation for China's implementation of "clean development mechanisms" (COM): the core domestic laws on CDM rest on China's commitments as a contracting party to the Kyoto Protocol. Furthermore, the 2004 Management Measures invite bureaucratic entanglements involving many major and supporting agencies. The chapter's faint condemnation of private interests unfortunately precludes a more thoughtful discussion of incentivizing firms and encouraging private-public partnerships in CDMs.

 

Chapter 8 by Yu Hongyuan provides an overview of China's involvement in international regimes concerning climate change. The central theme is China's willingness to recognize the negative impacts of its rapid growth and to come to terms with other countries' demands. I would have liked to see a discussion of whether China's position on climate change is either complicated or facilitated by participation in general multilateral institutions such as ASEM and APEC. Yu rightly points out that domestic empirical understanding of the actual impact of climate change remains woefully inadequate, hindering informed and accountable pol icy-making.

 

The final chapter, by Tadakatsu Sano-a former vice-minister of the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI)-with Mikiko Fujiwara, offers lessons from the Japanese experience in managing energy insecurity. This comparison has many limitations and may overstate China's potential problems, since for China the development of domestic resources is a viable option. Sa no does not consider the Japanese government's mixed record of environmental protection, or innovative Japanese carmakers' critical contribution to meeting consumer demand for fuel efficiency. The chapter's relevance to China would also have been enhanced by further analysis of Japan's bureaucratic reorganization, along the lines of Steven Vogel's work on reregulation.

  

Despite its limitations, this book represents the state of the art in Western scholarship on the elite politics and institutions of China's energy security. It is appropriate for undergraduate study and graduate research on the political economy of development. I would recommend it to anyone with an interest in China's energy policy and environmental protection, as well as its developmental bottlenecks and elite policy-making in general. The Introduction and individual chapters provide adequate background information for the general-interest reader and concise literature reviews on specific topics of China's energy policy and industrial structure. It would be good to see further volumes on closely related topics such as fuel tax implementation and other tax incentives to promote the restructuring of domestic automobile manufacturers and consumption patterns of industries and households, or the roles of private capital, foreign investors and local governments in the energy sectors.  

 

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