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close up on the news 1. A Final Agreement on U.S. Bases Between Japan and the U.S. 2. Japan’s Relations with China and Korea Sore over Boundaries 3. Ozawa Ichirô Remplaces Maehara Seiji as Head of Minshutô VIEW POINTS OF THE NEWS Sakamoto Kazuya, “The Japan-U.S. Alliance and Guam’s Defense – How to Broaden Japan-U.S. Cooperation” l Katsuda Kichitarô, “Rethinking the ‘Nuclear Logic’” l Gabe Masaaki, “What the ‘U.S. Bases Problem’ Implies” l Inamine Keiichi, “Inhabitants of Okinawa Want the Bases to Shrink” l Machimura Nobutaka, “Beyond U.N.O.-centrisme” l Kitaoka Shinichi, “Why the U.N. Security Council Reform Stalls” l Takenaka Heizô, “Let us not Fear Differences”.
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French Editor: G. Delamotte. Translation: Peter Brown
The final agreement between the Japanese and American governments on the relocation of bases and the financing of this operation, further to the agreement of October 2005, was signed on the Ist May at a new 2+2 Summit meeting of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defense held in Washington.
The key points of the May 1st agreement
- Futenma will be relocated to Nago by 2014- 8,000 Marines to be sent to Guam by 2014. The estimated cost of the transfer is 10.2 billion dollars, of which Japan is to contribute 6 billion dollars (during the 2008 fiscal year).- The sites returned to Japan are Camp Kuwae, Futenma, the service zone of Makiminato, the military port of Naha, the army’s oil refuelling docks (Kuwae Tank Farm n°1), which is a part of Camp Zukeran.- a study will be carried out on the possibility of opening up Yokota base for civilian purposes. Partial control of its air space will be handed back to Japan by September 2008.- by 2014, the Atsugi aircraft carrier is to be transferred to Iwakuni.
- The transformation of the military command of Zama will be carried out by 2008.
This agreement comes about in the context of a spirited national debate in Japan. Local elections in Nago, where the Futenma base is located, were held last January. The three candidates in the run-off had come out in opposition to the 2005 Japan-American plan. The conservative candidate elected was, however, prepared to compromise. In fact, he reached an agreement on April 7th with the Director of the Defense Agency on a “V” shaped runway, one branch serving for takeoff, the other for landing.
In another development, the Mayor of the city of Iwakuni, Ihara Katsusuke, organised a referendum on the 12th March, in which 87% of the population rejected the redeployment of 1600 Marines and an aircraft carrier from the base at Atsugi (prefecture of Kanagawa) to Iwakuni (Yamaguchi prefecture). In return, the interim agreement of March 2005 provided for the transfer of seventeen planes and 700 members of the FAD based at Iwakuni to Atsugi. In June 2005, the local council had already adopted a resolution rejecting these arrangements. The results of the referendum, although not binding on the government, have nonetheless caused it disquiet. Conversely, the neighbouring townships to Atsugi of Yamate, Ayase and Sagamihara are satisfied with the anticipated departure of the aircraft carrier and now support the realignment plan.
Finally, the Governor of Okinawa, Inamine Keiichi, opposed the government’s plan to relocate Futenma from the Bay of Gino to Cap Henoko (township of Nago), although he was the one behind the idea in the first place. In November 1998, during his election campaign, he proposed the setting up of an airport in the north of the island to be open for Japanese commercial use, with a sunset clause for the termination of such use after 15 years. In 1999, a private panel he set up proposed the site of Henoko to replace Futenma, and the central government endorsed the idea. Mr. Inamine still intends to push through his maximum duration clause, and it was on this that he campaigned in 2002 (the economic situation being the major issue in the election). Since 2005, Mr. Inamine has been asking, however, for the base to be moved out of the prefecture. In April 2006, he finally announced that he was adopting the same position as that of Nago’s new Mayor.
The agreement also provides for the relocation of the American command at Fort Lewis and that of the ground forces to Zama FAD (prefecture of Kanagawa), something opposed by the Mayor of Zama, Hoshino Katsuji.
It also foreshadows the relocation of American F-15s from the air force base of Kadena (Okinawa) to several Japanese bases. The reactions of the host cities vary, as indicated, for example, by the opposition voiced by the Governor of the prefecture of Miyazaki, Andô Tadahiro, to the arrival of these planes at the Nyûtabaru base (township of Shintomi).
Finally, the agreement concerns the Japanese contribution to the cost of relocating 8,000 Marines to Guam. The American government had initially called for 75% of the expense to be borne by Japan, while the Japanese Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr. Asô, was hoping for a 50% contribution. A meeting between the Secretary of State for Defense and the Director of the Defense Agency, Messrs Rumsfeld and Nukaga, in Washington on 25th April, led to an agreement whereby Japan would contribute 59% of the costs, based on an estimate provided by the United States, which means that the Japanese share should amount to some 6 billion dollars.
In actual fact, the direct cost to the United States and Japan will be about 41%, with the balance being comprised of Japanese loans. The Japanese government will make compensatory payments to the land owners for three years. The relocation of the base will, in addition, result in job losses that will have to be compensated for. The space freed up by the departure of the Marines represents 10% of the total area occupied by the American bases on Okinawa.
The Social Gap: Nothing to be Afraid of
Extract and translated from the French E-bulletin “Japan Analysis – La Lettre du Japon” n°4, May. 2006, pp.10, adapted from Bungeishunshû, May 2006, pp.118-128 (interview).
French Editor: G. Delamotte. Translation: Peter Brown
The Minister who carried through the reform of banks and the Post Office offers his view of the social changes that Japan is undergoing.
*Professor of economics, currently Interior Minister.
This criticism is unfounded. Take the case of questionable bank loans that we have cleaned up. If they had remained, would social cohesion have been any better? Of course not. The whole world is having to face this phenomenon. The confines of the technological and digital revolutions are expanding, as are those of biological and chemical techniques. This is an environment which favours the appearance of winners who are on the cusp of all these changes, and of people who struggle to adapt to them. In order to prevent disparities spreading, we must be vigilant in preserving equality as an organising principle. That is why useless rules have to be dropped. They protect certain people who find themselves inside the borders they erect and who alone can freely go about their economic activity, while people on the outside cannot take part in it. Next, we have to put in place a system which gives people who have become worse off since the appearance of new borders the means to get going again. Disparities have always existed; we must move beyond them and not let them become entrenched. Lastly, we need to set up a security net with social assistance mechanisms. All these three crucial elements fall within the government’s reforms.
The figures currently available for working out the Gini index date back to 2002. They therefore do not show anything of the impact of Mr. Koizumi’s reforms. Besides, with the increase in the number of retirees, there will also be a greater number of people on low-incomes, which will naturally lead to an increase in the Gini index.
The fact that there are income differences, with some incomes being higher than others, is not a bad thing in itself. What causes a problem is when there is a drop in incomes at the bottom of the social scale, but there is no sign of this at the present time.
- On the rise in unemployment and the number of bankruptcies:
Unemployment is now at its lowest since 1998. We currently have the best ratio of supply to demand in the job market in 13 years. This is the outcome of Mr. Koizumi’s reforms which have made it easier to deal with questionable loans and promoted structural reform. The feeling that gaps are appearing should not cast a shadow over the reforms that have been carried out.
- The supply may well be on the increase, but industrial restructurings have led to a proliferation of casual [ “non regular”] jobs…
The fact that people with such jobs cannot make any contribution towards a retirement fund is a problem that needs redressing. But the system of jobs for life also has its drawbacks. Japan’s priority at the present time is not growth [which is doing well], but carrying out structural reforms.
- On post-Koizumi candidates:
Someone needs to see these reforms through, and also be able to win over the population to them.
Finally, it must be someone who is determined to confront the bureaucracy.
- Relations with China are tense and the business community is calling for their improvement:
In Japan we should talk more about strategic ambiguity when it comes to diplomatic questions. There is no 100% winner or loser in this area. You’re never completely right or wrong in diplomacy. We would therefore need to be realistic enough to ask for what we can obtain.
In Japan, we curiously like things to be fuzzy in domestic politics. So we talk about “perfect privatisation” (ganzen ni mineika). In diplomacy, we have to learn to be unambiguous.
- That is exactly what Mr. Koizumi claims to be doing by going to Yasukuni…Not really, since Yasukuni is not a matter of foreign, but domestic policy, and it is something the Prime Minister holds “dear to his heart”. There is no more orthodox position with regard to China than Mr. Koizumi’s, who places the highest importance on Sino-Japanese friendship.