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French Editor: G. Delamotte. Translation: Peter Brown
Mr. Gabe, an expert in defense matters, takes a relative view of the threat posed by North Korean missiles to Japan.
A non specific threat
On July 5th, North Korea launched 7 missiles which all crashed into the Sea of Japan. Five and a half hours later, the secretary general of the government made the following declaration[1]: “we can only be extremely worried by the firing of these missiles” (kiwamete yûryo subeki mono), which are a problem in terms of the proliferation of ADMs, stability and international peace as well as our own security. These launches are also contrary to the moratorium agreed to in the Japan-Korea joint declaration made in Pyongyang (2002).
Already by lunchtime Japan had published a series of measures (Kitachôsen ni yoru dandô misairu no hassha jian ni kakaru wagakuni no tômen no taiô ni tsuite).
The draft resolution presented to the Security Council late morning on the 6th (Japanese time) proposed:
1. to act on the basis of chapter 7;2. to condemn the firing of the missiles and emphasise their contradiction with North Korea’s commitment to freezing its launches;3. to impose on North Korea an immediate suspension of the development, production and testing of ballistic missiles;4. to ban the entry into Korea of material and technologies capable of lending themselves to the development of weapons of mass destruction;
5. the immediate reconvening of the Six-party talks.
It was furthermore specified that “the proliferation of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons or their carriers constitutes a threat to peace and international stability” and that ”Korea’s launching of missiles had heightened tensions in East Asia and the surrounding area, and thereby constituted a serious subject of concern”.
The compromise resolution that was finally adopted does not say that North Korea constitutes a threat, although this no doubt did not represent the view of the international community.
Was Japan the target?
How is it that the Japanese government, whilst condemning and sanctioning North Korea, did not say that the missile launch was a threat to Japan?
On July 5th, North Korea fired off Scuds with a range of 500km, a distance covering the whole of the Korean peninsula; Rodongs with a range of 1300kms covering the whole of Japan; Taepodongs with a range of between 3500 and 6000kms capable or reaching Alaska. This was not only for the purposes of military exercises. These launches could have been the result of a compromise among the Korean authorities – between the army and Kim Jong-Il – for example, or a signal being sent to the United States in order to get bilateral negotiations; a willful act on the part of North Korea overshadowed by Iraq and Iran, and wishing to obtain, like India and Pakistan, the status of a country in possession of nuclear weapons. There has been a good deal of speculation among experts on the aims of these launches, but no one to my knowledge is claiming that North Korea was intending to reach Japan.
Already in May it seemed likely that there would be a Taepodong 2 launch. In June, it was learnt that preparations were underway and that a launch could take place within two to three days. In this way the Japanese government was able to prepare its response[2]. No declaration was made stigmatising the launches as a threat to Japan. The secretary general merely stated that “the launches directly concerned Japan’s security”.
The limit of sanctions adopted by Japan, however strict the Japanese government may have claimed them to be, has shown that if the view of the international community does not back up Japan’s North Korea policy, then Japan simply has no influence.
Does the range of the missiles constitute a threat?
If we posit the threat as T, capability as C, and intentions as I, then T = C x I.
I am not claiming that the missiles do not constitute a threat merely because the Japanese government is not talking about one.
North Korea does have missiles that can reach Japan; apart from the fact that it does not release information that would enable us to have any confidence, its intentions are uncertain. It therefore cannot be affirmed that North Korea does not constitute a threat.
In order for missiles to constitute a threat, they must be destructive. Therefore, what is required is the carrier, the missile, and its charge, the nuclear warhead. It is known that North Korea has missiles; we also know that it has a uranium enrichment programme and that it has acquired six to eight nuclear warheads containing plutonium. Other requirements still need to be met, of course: the tests must be successfully carried out; the country must know how to manufacture bombs and then be able to make them small enough that they can be loaded onto the missiles. For the time being, North Korea cannot make nuclear bombs.
As to North Korea’s intentions, one can only conjecture. If it were to attack Japan, it would enter into outright war not only with Japan, but also with the United States. At the very moment when the missile would strike Japan, the Korean peninsula would go up in flames. [One may think that that is not what it wishes and that] consequently its missiles do not constitute a threat to Japan.