Asia Centre

This autumn issue of China Analysis comes one month before the opening of the 17th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. This event is however ritualized and fades in comparison with the whirlwind of the Chinese economy which is experiencing an annual growth rate of over 11% and will undoubtedly leave China with a trade surplus of more than $300 billion in 2007. Nonetheless, it is giving rise not only to speculation but also, through positions taken, sheds light on the debates and the issues of concern to the Chinese leadership. It is fascinating to see how every hesitation points to a reminder that the final decision is in the hands of Hu Jintao. Thus, the man who restored the principle of collective leadership, and who set up, nominally at least, a system of transparency is more than ever the yibashou, or Number One, and a veritable black box when it comes to assessing Chinese intentions.

This issue of China Analysis focuses on several aspects related to the restrained but centrally important debate over political democracy. As we go to press, Xuexi (Study) published more praise for democratic change - an unavoidable complement to the market economy, Red Flag stated its opposition to the matter, and the People's Daily sounded a note of caution. Admittedly there is still a considerable gap between the reactivity and accountability championed by the Hu-Wen team and democratic institutions. Corruption, as well as the highly publicized scandals, works just as much to justify the Party's authority and need for control as it does to support the reformists' demands for a greater balance of powers. The mere publication of the list of delegates to the 17th Party Congress months before the event is a quite considerable feat for those concerned, as the risks of denunciation and public condemnation are great.  Fortresses can fall: after the Shanghai Party it was the turn of Sinopec, currently one of the ten leading global corporations, whose powerful boss was nonetheless dumped in a few days, along with the Finance Minister who had rubbed shoulders with leading world financiers. Hu Jintao's grip is impressive in combining stability with decisive moves.

The current issue also deals with the question of central authority in several different aspects. Why must the management of social security funds be centralized? Why is the army not to be liberalized in the name of its ongoing modernization? How are Chinese brand names to be promoted?

The other China - Taiwan - has not been overlooked. China Analysis has not commented on the two proposals for a referendum on UN membership (now that President Chen Shui-bian and the Kuomintang each have one). The sharply worded opinion recently expressed by the former President Lee Teng-hui, to the effect that it is shattering the island's political life, is itself comment enough. We have chosen instead to examine the constantly diminishing international space accorded to Taiwan, while also considering the possibility of de facto association of Taiwan in the alliances being forged by Japan in the Asia-Pacific, as well as in regional integration mechanisms.